The Proxy War in the Sahel

Everyone has an opinion on the latest Ukraine-Russia peace plan. Will it benefit Ukraine long-term? Was it originally written in Russian? Is the U.S. properly advocating for our ally, Ukraine? Something is being left out of this conversation, and it is how this war is impacting the fight against terrorism in the Sahel region of Africa. But now, with European Union leaders in Angola for the EU-AU summit, this is the perfect time to talk about it. In this episode, we explore the links between these crises via the Wagner Group's participation. 

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Chapters

• 0:00 Welcome
• 0:25 United for Ukraine?
• 5:58 Russia's interests in Africa
• 12:23 Until next time!

Transcript

Welcome to The Friday Brief, a news podcast by Girl Friday. I’m Phoenix Ricks, the CEO of Girl Friday and your host. This is your brief for November 24, 2025. Apologies for the delayed podcasts and Instagram updates. 

The flu, or something, has been going around DC. I can finally talk again, so let’s start with the latest from Ukraine. NBC said that “President Vladimir Putin has urged Ukraine to surrender key territory at the negotiating table — as Washington has suggested — or face Moscow's military taking it by force anyway.” Since August 15th, the Institute for the Study of War says Russia has been advancing at "foot pace,” gaining less than 4 square miles a day. They said if Russia can keep up this slow pace, it might be on track to take over the remainder of Donetsk around August 2027. Putin is pressuring Ukraine to hand over this territory because it would, of course, save resources and fighters over the next two years. But, where would that leave Ukraine? Will Russia stop at Donetsk or pop up again in a few years to take over the entire nation? 

There are valid concerns, as today’s news follows last week’s shock over the proposed peace plan. The Guardian reported that “the UK and EU were blind-sided last week when the original plan was leaked to US media.” They go on to say, “Since then, European governments have sought to revise the document, which appears to have originally been written in Russian.” The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said, “[...] only Ukraine, as a sovereign country, can make decisions regarding its armed forces.”As all of this is happening this week, European Union leaders are gathering with African Union leaders for the EU-AU summit in Angola. The timing is serendipitous, as we need to discuss how the Ukraine-Russia war plays out in Africa. When these hostilities started in 2014, I was working at the State Department. Our United for Ukraine campaign became an all-hands-on-deck effort across public diplomacy offices. Not long after Russia invaded Ukraine, thousands of miles away, girls in northern Nigeria were kidnapped by a terrorist group formerly called Boko Haram. Like most terrorist groups, they got along about as well as the Real Housewives of Bravo and have since splintered into violent rival factions. You may recall the 2014 kidnapping news and former First Lady Michelle Obama participating in an awareness campaign called Bring Back Our Girls. 

These two foreign policy campaigns were treated as distinct issues, with Ukraine receiving, quite frankly, more attention. In my opinion, that was always a mistake. All geopolitical issues are connected. And I don’t mean that just in the deep sense of universal human connection. I mean, technically and tangibly, every war is tied to other crises because of tangled geopolitical webs. If you only focus on one, you will miss the threads that link to the others. We, in the U.S., were not nearly focused enough on growing extremism in the Sahel region of Africa. That’s the region under the Sahara and above the Savana. It stretches across the continent, and in the west, it includes Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and yes, northern Nigeria, where those innocent schoolgirls were kidnapped in 2014. It's vast, semiarid, and often misunderstood or somewhat ignored by Western governments. Sure, academic papers have been written about extremism in the Sahel, and speeches have been given at major global events, but we have not been focused day to day on how to solve the problem. 

But another nation was focused, Russia. Through proxy wars, third parties learn new war techniques and forge political alliances to, among other things, support them on the main stage of their battlefield. Russia clearly took a look at growing Islamist insurgencies in Africa and made a financial gamble that has, thus far, paid off for them. What if they supported Sahel governments in their fight against the rise in terrorism? Other governments, like France's, had tried, but they often came with more demands, restrictions on negotiations, and, frankly, a colonial-era vibe. Could Russia become the preferred third-party supporter and outlast the others? 

Enter: the Wagner Group—a Russian military contractor that was, so they claimed, independent of the government. They entered Mali in December of 2021 to help the government fight terrorists linked to Al-Qaeda. On February 2, 2022, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published an in-depth look at Wagner’s newly launched operations in Mali. There was no mention of Ukraine. Twenty-two days later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Wagner has been in the Sahel through coups, military juntas, and grave civil unrest, all while also fighting in other countries, including Ukraine. I have no doubt the lessons they learn in Africa are shared to improve their strategies in Ukraine. Leaders have changed, but Wagner remains. The only change for them was a corporate rebranding. 

In Africa, they are now the Africa Corps, with a C, not to be confused with the notorious German Afrika Korps with two Ks and a swastika logo. This reimagined unit is now openly tied to Russia’s military and continues to battle jihadists in Africa. This restructuring occurred in 2024, a year after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group. 

You may recall a very bold Prigozhin publicly taking on Vladimir Putin. At the time of his death in August 2023, PBS wrote, “Two months ago, Prigozhin, 62, mounted a daylong mutiny against Russia’s military, leading his mercenaries from Ukraine toward Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin decried the act as ‘treason’ and vowed punishment for those involved.” There’s a long list of Russians who fall off of balconies and out of windows after public spats with the Russian government. They are usually listed as fatal mental health crises or tragic accidents. In Prigozhin’s case, the fall was from the sky, and, therefore filed under tragic accidents. PBS said, “A preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that an intentional explosion caused the plane to go down. As suspicions grew that the Russian president was the architect of an assassination, the Kremlin rejected them as a ‘complete lie.’” PBS reported that “One of the Western officials who described the initial assessment said it determined that Prigozhin was ‘very likely’ targeted and that an explosion would be in line with Putin’s ‘long history of trying to silence his critics.’” Should you wish to learn more about mysterious falls, you can check out the Moscow Times’ article “Death by Falling: A Timeline of Cases in Russia and Abroad.” 

So knowing that Humpty Dumpty’s ending could be a reality if the relationship goes south, African leaders still placed themselves between a Russian window and a Ukrainian wall in their ongoing battle against jihadists. Look at Mali as an example. While Russia-backed forces are supporting Mali’s military, Ukraine has been accused of providing resources to rebels. In October 2024, the BBC reported that Ukraine “denied allegations that it had supplied drones to rebels fighting against the Malian army and Russia-backed mercenaries.” This denial occurred after Le Monde reported that Ukrainian drones were helping rebel forces in Mali and that they were “benefiting from discreet but decisive support.” Ukraine has yet to beat the allegations. In September of this year, Mali’s current leader (appointed via a military junta) addressed the United Nations General Assembly, saying via an interpreter, “Ladies and gentlemen, though it may seem far away, the war in Ukraine and terrorism in the Sahel are connected.” 

He goes on to talk about a 2024 terrorist attack in Tenzaweten against Malian security forces. He said, again this is via interpretation, “we condemn the attitude shown by Ukrainian officials who publicly claimed [or affirmed] their participation in this terrorist attack.” That part of his speech concluded with, “One year later, the situation has worsened and the Ukrainian regime has become one of the main suppliers of kamikaze drones to terrorist groups around the world.” Is that all accurate, or is some of it hyperbole or propaganda? Depending on which political analysts you read, you’ll find a slightly different answer. But we do know, from The Times in 2024, that the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military intelligence service confirmed the Ukrainian military's participation in the attack referenced in the United Nations speech I just mentioned. He said, “The rebels received intelligence — and not only intelligence — to allow them to carry out a successful military operation.” You can read more via The Times article, “Ukraine ‘helped’ Mali rebel attack that killed dozens of Wagner fighters.” 

Now that we’ve established the intimate connection between the Ukraine-Russia war and Africa, tomorrow I’m going to talk about the differences between the jihadist groups vying for control in Africa and why the United States is focusing on Nigeria. Thank you for listening to The Friday Brief. Make sure you and your friends don’t miss an episode! Check out thefridaybrief.com, and follow The Friday Brief on Instagram. Until next time, I’m Phoenix Ricks, signing off from Washington, DC. Let’s work together for a world of good.