"Bad things are going to happen"

A new geopolitical story is unfolding in Afghanistan. The Taliban has a fragile ceasefire in place with Pakistan (which accused the Taliban of harboring anti-Pakistan militants), and they are trying to restore diplomatic relations with India. What is China's role? And why does the U.S. want to open discussions about Bagram Airbase? All in under 15 minutes!

Be sure to follow us on Instagram @thefridaybrief and sign up for The Friday Brief newsletter on thefridaybrief.com.

Chapters

• 0:00 Welcome
• 0:19 Recap: Afghanistan's blackout
• 2:09 Afghanistan vs. Pakistan
• 2:55 Afghanistan + India
• 3:19 Is the Taliban hiding militants?
• 3:56 Could China be the peacemaker?
• 5:09 Why does Trump want Bagram?
• 7:21 Until next time!

Transcript

Welcome to The Friday Brief, a news podcast by Girl Friday. I’m Phoenix Ricks, the CEO of Girl Friday and your host. This is your brief for October 17, 2025. 

You may recall from a previous episode that Afghanistan lost telecom and internet services for about 48 hours at the end of September. Human rights organizations and journalists theorized that the Taliban was trying to control Afghans’ access to the world beyond their borders. That seems perfectly plausible and very much in line with the Taliban’s restrictive policies and so-called morality concerns about the internet. Even still, I think it's too easy to assume that the Taliban was simply flexing its authority nationwide when you consider their mild statement about the outage that was finally reported on October 2. They prefer to display strongman-style leadership, so I would expect to see them either forcefully claim responsibility, as they have done in the past, or remain silent. Either approach promotes fear and reinforces control, even if they are also searching for the cause of the outage. 

For the vast majority of us, things like power shortages and telecom outages present annoying challenges. But, for people trying to surreptitiously move people and products, outages of all kinds present fantastic opportunities. And remember, scheduled flights into and out of Afghanistan were temporarily paused because of that outage. If I had a client with interests in the country, I would have been looking for unscheduled flights that entered or exited during the outage. I would have also investigated all other possible border crossings. 

I’m always looking to see if a violent conflict emerges in the aftermath of cyberattacks and unanticipated outages. It could be unrelated, but like clockwork, that is exactly what happened. This week, the BBC reported that Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to a temporary ceasefire after “fresh border clashes and reported Pakistani air strikes on Kabul and Kandahar.” The AFP says the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan reported 37 people killed and 425 wounded. The timing of the initial strike on Afghanistan is interesting, as it took place while an Afghan official was in India, trying to restore diplomatic relations. 

Now, you know India and Pakistan have not always maintained the closest ties, and when you add the Taliban to the mix, it adds further complications. Chatham House says that "Historically, India has viewed the Taliban with hostility, given the group’s extremist ideology and its close affiliation with the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment." We're watching a new geopolitical game unfold. Why is this suddenly happening? So, Pakistan says the Taliban is hiding militants who are targeting Pakistan, and the Taliban denies it. PBS reported that unnamed Pakistani officials told journalists that they targeted the suspected militants’ hideouts in Afghanistan this week. 

Given all of these moving pieces, I would say the ceasefire agreement seems fragile. China is publicly urging both nations to pursue diplomacy. China’s involvement here as the peacemaker is very interesting. This month, the United Nations Human Rights Council opted to launch an investigation into recent grave human rights violations in Afghanistan, particularly against women and girls. The draft resolution was presented by the European Union and adopted without a vote. Everyone seemed to be in agreement about the repressive conditions in Afghanistan today. Except for one nation. Le Monde reported that China “disassociated itself from the consensus.” China stated that the resolution "fails to acknowledge the positive progress achieved,” adding that "Afghanistan has taken various measures for stability, economic growth, and improvement of people's livelihood.” 

I wonder if the infamous oil deal between China and Afghanistan is being reconsidered. And, I keep in mind that another very important geopolitical conversation is taking place. The debate over Bagram Airbase. Almost exactly one month ago, Reuters reported that Donald Trump posted to Truth Social, "If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN.” That last part of the statement was in all capital letters. What’s fascinating to me, though, is the response to his unexpected public pronouncements about Bagram last month. NBC reported that an Afghan official posted to the app formerly known as Twitter, “The Afghans have not accepted a military presence in history, and this possibility was completely rejected during the Doha talks and agreement, but the door is open for further interaction.” 

So, what is the geopolitical play here? What is the U.S. government trying to do on Bagram Airbase when we’re no longer in a war? Well, Donald Trump told journalists, quite plainly, at least one reason, “It’s an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.” China’s spokesperson for foreign affairs responded, saying China "respects Afghanistan’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” I’ll keep tracking these Afghanistan stories. I have a hunch that we’ll inadvertently learn more about that mysterious telecom outage as all of these seemingly separate stories continue to unfold. 

Thank you for listening to The Friday Brief. I’ve seen your requests to revive daily episodes, and I am actively working on that. In the meantime, make sure you and your friends don’t miss an episode! Check out thefridaybrief.com, and follow The Friday Brief on Instagram. Until next time, I’m Phoenix Ricks, signing off from Washington, DC. Let’s work together for a world of good.